TOST · Coteau

TOST

Toast, Inc.

$32.65

+3.82% 2026-10-20

FinancialsS&P 400

1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y

TOSTSPY

+5.7%

+9.8%

+7.5%

+13.9%

YTD

-8.1%

-13.3%

Live chart

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Grades vs sector

Momentum

12th pct in sector

D-

12-1 return: -19.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Growth

77th pct in sector

B+

Revenue growth (YoY): +23.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Value

6th pct in sector

Forward E/P: 5.6% · EBITDA/EV: 2.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Profitability

50th pct in sector

C+

Profit margin: +7.1% · Return on equity: +25.2%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.

Revisions

Not enough data yet

–

EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Top 15

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Momentum Blend

not in the current book

New Highs Growth

not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)

Conviction 20

not in the current book

News

More news

The Tech Stock Rebound Is Toast Already

Barrons.com · 23h ago

Key stats

Market cap$18.9B

P/E (trailing)41.3

P/E (forward)18.6

52-week range22.26 – 39.73

Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+23.1%

Dividend yield0.00%

Analyst consensusBuy (27)

Mean price target$38.81 (+19%)

Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line

Looks undervalued

Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +3 (DCF counts double).

▲DCF (base case)above the price by 21%

▼Forward P/E vs sector18.6x vs median 10.2x

▲Piotroski F-score7/9

▲Altman Z12.7 (safe)

▲Net debt / EBITDA-3.2x

▲Analyst target+19% (27 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear

$21

-34%

growth 16% · disc. 14.0% · term. 2.0%

Base

$39

+21%

growth 27% · disc. 13.0% · term. 2.5%

Bull

$63

+93%

growth 34% · disc. 12.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal

Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 18% a year for 10 years.

Implied

+18%/yr

FCF, last 3 yrs

n/a

FCF, last 5 yrs

n/a

Revenue, last 3 yrs

+31%/yr

Revenue, last 5 yrs

+50%/yr

Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.6B, 13.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.

Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly

Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.74 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Financials

P/E (trailing)

sector median 13.0× · 94th pct

41.3×
pricier

Forward P/E

sector median 10.2× · 91st pct

18.6×
pricier

EV / EBITDA

sector median 10.9× · 98th pct

36.0×
pricier

Price / sales

sector median 2.8× · 49th pct

2.8×
cheaper

Price / book

sector median 1.6× · 96th pct

9.2×
pricier

FCF yield

sector median 8.2% · 13th pct

3.3%
pricier

Forward EPS $1.76 vs trailing $0.79 (+123% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO

$1.1B

as of 2026-06-30

vs a year ago

+22%

YoY

× TTM revenue

0.16×

coverage

24-09

24-12

25-03

25-06

25-09

25-12

26-03

26-06

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin

26.7%

Operating margin

6.3%

FCF margin

9.2%

Net margin

7.1%

Return on equity

23.8%

Return on invested capital

81.0%

Net debt / EBITDA

-3.2×

Current ratio

2.4×

Interest cover

35.9×

Cash conversion (OCF/NI)

1.3×

Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years

✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 12.7 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target

$39

+19%

Analysts

Buy

Range

$25–$45

low – high

● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FY	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	$6.2B	$342.0M	$661.0M
2024	$5.0B	$19.0M	$360.0M
2023	$3.9B	$-246.0M	$135.0M
2022	$2.7B	$-275.0M	$-172.0M
2021	$1.7B	$-487.0M	$-10.0M
2020	$823.0M	$-248.0M	$-153.0M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +31.1%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-03 · during market · EPS est 0.37

EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Report	EPS est	Actual	Surprise
2026-08-04	0.32	0.36	+11.4%
2026-05-07	0.27	0.29	+6.7%
2026-02-12	0.24	0.27	+12.9%
2025-11-04	0.23	0.28	+19.6%
2025-08-05	0.22	0.25	+12.0%
2025-05-08	0.18	0.20	+9.6%
2025-02-19	0.16	0.18	+11.2%
2024-11-07	0.13	0.17	+32.0%

Quarterly revenue

Quarter	Revenue	YoY
2026-06-30	$1.9B	+23.1%
2026-03-31	$1.6B	–
2025-12-31	$1.6B	–
2025-09-30	$1.6B	–
2025-06-30	$1.6B	–

Analyst actions

Truist Securities

2026-10-19 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $38

BNP Paribas

2026-09-02 · down

Outperform → Neutral
PT $35

RBC Capital

2026-08-31 · main

Sector Perform → Sector Perform
PT $44

Truist Securities

2026-08-12 · main

Buy → Buy
PT $39

DA Davidson

2026-08-10 · main

Neutral → Neutral
PT $34

Bernstein

2026-08-06 · main

Outperform → Outperform
PT $45

Insider trades

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-10-05

SELL
$230.2K

Gomez Elena

President, CFO · 2026-10-02

SELL
$348.9K

Fredette Stephen

Director, President · 2026-10-02

SELL
$275.0K

Narang Aman

Director, CEO · 2026-10-02

SELL
$431.9K

Elworthy Brian R

General Counsel · 2026-10-02

SELL
$191.0K

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-10-02

SELL
$199.8K

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-10-02

SELL
$199.9K

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-09-02

SELL
$171.1K

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-09-02

SELL
$313.0K

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-08-21

SELL
$3.1M

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-08-19

SELL
$501.7K

Vassil Jonathan

Chief Revenue Officer · 2026-08-11

SELL
$496.9K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 18:03:08 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

coteau

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.

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