TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
$373.71
+1.54% 2026-10-20
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500
TSLASPY
1W
-0.4%
1M
+2.6%
3M
-1.4%
6M
-3.3%
YTD
-16.9%
1Y
-16.5%
Live chart
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Grades vs sector
Momentum25th pct in sectorD+
Momentum
25th pct in sector
12-1 return: -22.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth96th pct in sectorA+
Growth
96th pct in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +25.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value0th pct in sectorF
Value
0th pct in sector
Forward E/P: 0.6% · EBITDA/EV: 0.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability24th pct in sectorD
Profitability
24th pct in sector
Profit margin: +3.7% · Return on equity: +4.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Our models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
not ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Momentum Top 15rank 435 of 499 · 12-1 momentum % -17.3
Momentum Blendnot in the current book
New Highs Growthnot ranked (outside this model's universe or screens)
Conviction 20not in the current book
News
More newsTesla supplier CATL shares plunge after disappointing Q3 results
Investing.com · 41m ago
A possible SpaceX-Tesla merger? Here’s what people are saying
Investing.com · 54m ago
Explainer-Why would Musk merge SpaceX and Tesla?
Investing.com · 1h ago
Why is Tesla stock rising after-hours today?
Investing.com · 3h ago
SpaceX and Tesla’s Terafab targets 2028 for volume chip production, Musk says
Investing.com · 4h ago
Key stats
Market cap$1.5T
P/E (trailing)346.0
P/E (forward)172.3
52-week range297.38 – 498.83
Revenue growth (YoY, latest qtr)+25.5%
Dividend yield0.00%
Analyst consensusBuy (38)
Mean price target$397.83 (+6%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
No cash-flow valuation
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).
▼Forward P/E vs sector172.3x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Altman Z16.0 (safe)
▲Net debt / EBITDA-6.6x
•Analyst target+6% (38 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Automobile Manufacturers profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (5.8B, a 6% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: -0.3%) times current revenue = -0.3B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $37; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $–. Glossary
Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.92 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 99th pct
346.0×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 100th pct
172.3×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.3× · 100th pct
266.5×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 99th pct
14.2×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 2.8× · 92nd pct
17.0×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.6% · 7th pct
0.4%pricier
Forward EPS $2.17 vs trailing $1.08 (+101% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Backlog (remaining performance obligations)
RPO
$10.1B
as of 2026-06-30
vs a year ago
-3%
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.10×
coverage
Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
18.9%
Operating margin
4.2%
FCF margin
5.6%
Net margin
3.7%
Return on equity
4.4%
Return on invested capital
6.3%
Net debt / EBITDA
-6.6×
Current ratio
1.9×
Interest cover
13.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
4.9×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Altman Z-score 16.0 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.
Analysts
Mean target
$398
+6%
Analysts
38
Buy
Range
$128–$600
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $94.8B | $3.8B | $6.2B |
| 2024 | $97.7B | $7.1B | $3.6B |
| 2023 | $96.8B | $15.0B | $4.4B |
| 2022 | $81.5B | $12.6B | $7.6B |
| 2021 | $53.8B | $5.5B | $5.0B |
| 2020 | $31.5B | $721.0M | $2.8B |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +5.2%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-10-21 · after close · EPS est 0.45
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 0.54 | 0.33 | -39.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | 0.35 | 0.41 | +17.1% |
| 2026-01-28 | 0.45 | 0.50 | +11.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | 0.56 | 0.50 | -10.5% |
| 2025-07-23 | 0.40 | 0.40 | -1.1% |
| 2025-04-22 | 0.41 | 0.27 | -34.9% |
| 2025-01-29 | 0.77 | 0.73 | -5.1% |
| 2024-10-23 | 0.60 | 0.72 | +20.5% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $28.2B | +25.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | $22.4B | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $24.9B | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $28.1B | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $22.5B | – |
Analyst actions
Cantor Fitzgerald
PT $485
2026-10-20 · reit
Overweight → OverweightPT $485
GLJ Research
PT $25
2026-10-15 · reit
Sell → SellPT $25
Jefferies
PT $400
2026-10-12 · main
Hold → HoldPT $400
Tigress Financial
PT $550
2026-10-08 · main
Buy → BuyPT $550
UBS
PT $391
2026-10-07 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $391
JP Morgan
PT $415
2026-09-28 · main
Neutral → NeutralPT $415
Insider trades
Taneja Vaibhav
$938.4K
Chief Financial Officer · 2026-09-08
SELL$938.4K
Stats refreshed 2026-10-20 17:52:20 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. It doesn't manage money or give investment advice. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (delayed) and SEC EDGAR.