VVV
Valvoline Inc.
$32.44
+4.24% Oct 22 close
VVVSPY
1W
+2.7%
1M
+13.1%
3M
-15.3%
6M
+0.3%
YTD
+11.6%
1Y
-5.1%
Live chart
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What they do
Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services. It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations.
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
For information only · Important disclosures
Grades vs sector
Momentum40th percentile in sectorC-
Momentum
40th percentile in sector
12-1 return: -8.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth95th percentile in sectorA+
Growth
95th percentile in sector
Revenue growth (YoY): +24.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value38th percentile in sectorC-
Value
38th percentile in sector
Forward E/P: 6.3% · EBITDA/EV: 8.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability56th percentile in sectorC+
Profitability
56th percentile in sector
Profit margin: +5.2% · Return on equity: +28.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
RevisionsNot enough data yet–
Revisions
Not enough data yet
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.
Systematic Models
Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.
Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum BlendNot in the current book
New Highs GrowthOutside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long BookNot in the current book
News
More newsValvoline Expected to Issue 'Fairly Conservative' Initial Fiscal 2027 Guidance, RBC Says
MT Newswires · Oct 21
RBC Capital Adjusts Price Target on Valvoline to $46 From $49, Keeps Outperform Rating
MT Newswires · Oct 21
Valvoline (VVV) Stock May Trade Above Fair Value On Earnings
Simply Wall St. · Oct 16
Valvoline Inc. Marks 10 Years as a Public Company and 40 Years in Retail Service
Business Wire · Oct 13
Kroger Launches Mastercard Powered by Payments Platform Imprint: NYSE Content Update
CNW Group · Oct 01
Key stats
Market value$4.0B
P/E (last 12 months)38.4
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)15.8
52-week range$26.21 – $41.08
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+24.1%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (16)
Average analyst price target$42.62 (+31%)
Valuation and fundamentals
Valuation & fundamentals
Bottom line
Leans undervalued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +1 (DCF counts double).
▲DCF (base case)above the price by 16%
▼Forward P/E vs sector15.8x vs median 13.4x
•Piotroski F-score6/9
▼Net debt / EBITDA5.0x
▲Analyst target+31% (16 analysts)
Discounted cash flow
CyclicalValued on average-cycle margins
Automotive Retail profits swing with the business cycle, so one year's cash flow can be far above or below normal. Instead of the last 12 months' free cash flow (0.1B, a 7% margin), the DCF and reverse DCF use the average free-cash-flow margin over FY2016–FY2025 (10 years: 9.1%) times current revenue = 0.2B. On trailing cash flow the base case would be $25; on mid-cycle cash flow it is $37. Glossary
Bear
$16
-51%
growth 11% · disc. 10.4% · term. 2.0%
Base
$37
+16%
growth 18% · disc. 9.4% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$69
+112%
growth 22% · disc. 8.4% · term. 3.0%
Starting cash flow is mid-cycle: 9.1% average margin × current revenue = 0.2B (last 12 months: 0.1B at a 7% margin). On trailing cash flow the base case would be $25.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
A normal DCF guesses future cash flows and works out a price. A reverse DCF runs it backwards: it starts from today's price and asks how fast free cash flow would have to grow to justify it. It tells you what the market is assuming, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not a buy or sell signal. Glossary
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 12% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+12%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-37%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
-33%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+11%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+19%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: mid-cycle free cash flow 0.2B, 9.4% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.04 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.
Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary
P/E (trailing)
pricier
sector median 17.7× · 89th pct
38.4×pricier
Forward P/E
pricier
sector median 13.4× · 65th pct
15.8×pricier
EV / EBITDA
pricier
sector median 11.3× · 83rd pct
18.2×pricier
Price / sales
pricier
sector median 1.2× · 69th pct
2.0×pricier
Price / book
pricier
sector median 2.8× · 83rd pct
9.5×pricier
FCF yield
pricier
sector median 6.6% · 24th pct
3.4%pricier
Forward EPS $1.96 vs trailing $0.81 (+143% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.
Quality & financial health
Gross margin
38.3%
Operating margin
15.3%
FCF margin
6.9%
Net margin
5.2%
Return on equity
24.4%
Return on invested capital
10.1%
Net debt / EBITDA
5.0×
Current ratio
0.7×
Interest cover
–
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
4.0×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved
Analysts
Mean target
$43
+31%
Analysts
16
Buy
Range
$34–$48
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target
Annual history
| FY | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.7B | $210.7M | $38.0M |
| 2024 | $1.6B | $211.5M | $40.7M |
| 2023 | $1.4B | $1.4B | $-221.3M |
| 2022 | $1.2B | $424.3M | $152.2M |
| 2021 | $1.0B | $420.3M | $300.8M |
| 2020 | $727.0M | $316.6M | $277.7M |
From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +11.4%.
Earnings
Next report: 2026-11-18 · before open · EPS est 0.42
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
| Report | EPS est | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 0.50 | 0.57 | +13.6% |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.34 | 0.41 | +19.1% |
| 2026-02-04 | 0.33 | 0.37 | +13.6% |
| 2025-11-19 | 0.47 | 0.45 | -4.0% |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.45 | 0.47 | +3.5% |
| 2025-05-08 | 0.36 | 0.34 | -5.3% |
| 2025-02-06 | 0.30 | 0.32 | +7.2% |
| 2024-11-19 | 0.42 | 0.46 | +9.2% |
Quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $544.6M | +24.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | $503.8M | – |
| 2025-12-31 | $461.8M | – |
| 2025-09-30 | $453.8M | – |
| 2025-06-30 | $439.0M | – |
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · RBC Capital reiterated Outperform on VVV
Reiterated
2026-10-14 · TD Cowen reiterated Buy on VVV
Reiterated
2026-10-06 · Barclays reiterated Equal-Weight on VVV
Reiterated
2026-10-01 · Citigroup reiterated Neutral on VVV
Reiterated
2026-09-11 · RBC Capital reiterated Outperform on VVV
Initiated
2026-08-20 · Benchmark started covering VVV at Buy
Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes
Recent dividends
2022-12-01: $0.125 · 2022-08-30: $0.125 · 2022-05-27: $0.125 · 2022-02-25: $0.125 · 2021-11-26: $0.125 · 2021-08-27: $0.125 · 2021-05-27: $0.125 · 2021-02-25: $0.125
Insider trades
O'Daniel Julie Marie
$125.1K
Chief Legal Officer · 2026-08-21
Sell$125.1K
Denny Jordan M.
$50.0K
Chief Accounting Officer · 2026-08-12
Buy$50.0K
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Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:23:02 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now
coteau
Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app
Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026