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WCN

Waste Connections, Inc.
$168.28
-0.71% Oct 21 close
Industrials CompareTechnicals
-14%-6%+2%+9%+17%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
WCNSPY
1W
+7.3%
1M
+8.2%
3M
+0.4%
6M
+8.0%
YTD
-3.4%
1Y
-2.5%

Live chart

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What they do

Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services. The company owns and operates transfer stations that receive, compact, and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck.

Industrials · Waste Management

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

No sector grades for WCN yet. Grades rank S&P 1500 stocks within their sector and refresh after each daily data run, so a stock outside that index or newly covered has none.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
Waste Connections Inc Reveals Increase In Q3 Profit
Nasdaq · 20h ago

Key stats

Market value$42.3B
P/E (last 12 months)40.6
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)27.1
52-week range$146.89 – $179.74
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+6.4%
Dividend yield0.83%
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (25)
Average analyst price target$196.72 (+17%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -1 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 25%
•Piotroski F-score6/9
•Altman Z2.9 (grey)
•Net debt / EBITDA2.3x
▲Analyst target+17% (25 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$61
-64%
growth 3% · disc. 8.0% · term. 2.0%
Base
$127
-25%
growth 8% · disc. 7.0% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$246
+46%
growth 11% · disc. 6.0% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 9% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+9%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+4%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+9%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+9%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+12%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 1.2B, 7.0% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.48 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs sector

Forward EPS $6.20 vs trailing $4.14 (+50% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
42.5%
Operating margin
17.0%
FCF margin
12.6%
Net margin
11.0%
Return on equity
13.1%
Return on invested capital
8.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3×
Current ratio
0.7×
Interest cover
4.8×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
2.3×
Piotroski F-score 6/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✓ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 2.9 (grey zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$197
+17%
Analysts
25
Strong Buy
Range
$162–$220
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$9.5B$1.1B$1.2B
2024$8.9B$617.6M$1.2B
2023$8.0B$762.8M$1.2B
2022$7.2B$835.7M$1.1B
2021$6.2B$618.0M$953.9M
2020$5.4B$204.7M$811.5M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +9.5%.

Earnings

Next report: –
24-1025-0225-0425-0725-1026-0226-0426-070.001.50
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-221.351.50+10.8%
2026-04-221.181.23+3.9%
2026-02-111.271.29+1.5%
2025-10-211.381.44+4.5%
2025-07-231.251.29+3.3%
2025-04-231.081.13+4.9%
2025-02-121.191.16-2.4%
2024-10-231.291.35+4.3%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$2.6B+6.4%
2026-03-31$2.4B–
2025-12-31$2.4B–
2025-09-30$2.5B–
2025-06-30$2.4B–
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-15 · Citigroup reiterated Neutral on WCN
Reiterated
2026-10-13 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight on WCN
Reiterated
2026-10-08 · JP Morgan reiterated Overweight on WCN
Reiterated
2026-10-08 · CIBC reiterated Outperformer on WCN
Upgrade
2026-09-18 · UBS upgraded WCN from Neutral to Buy
Reiterated
2026-08-04 · UBS reiterated Neutral on WCN

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Recent dividends

2026-08-06: $0.350 · 2026-05-06: $0.350 · 2026-02-25: $0.350 · 2025-08-06: $0.315 · 2025-05-07: $0.315 · 2025-02-27: $0.315 · 2024-11-07: $0.315 · 2024-08-07: $0.285
Insider trades
Nielsen Iii Robert
SR VP Operations · 2026-08-19
Sell
$119.0K
Rivard Philip
SR VP Business Development · 2026-08-18
Sell
$416.4K
Netherton Susan
SR VP People, Training & Dev · 2026-08-13
Sell
$290.5K
Nielsen Iii Robert
SR VP Operations · 2026-07-29
Sell
$51.9K
Cloninger Robert Michael
SR VP, Deputy General Counsel · 2026-07-28
Sell
$40.8K
Cloninger Robert Michael
SR VP, Deputy General Counsel · 2026-07-28
Sell
$440.0K

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:01:55 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026