coteauBeta Get App
WSO

WSO

Watsco, Inc.
$301.85
+2.67% Oct 20 close
IndustrialsS&P 400 Compare
-24%-13%-1%+11%+23%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
WSOSPY
1W
+4.7%
1M
-2.1%
3M
-18.2%
6M
-30.1%
YTD
-7.2%
1Y
-17.4%

Live chart

Loading live chart…

What they do

Watsco, Inc. engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It distributes equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment.

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
21st percentile in sector
D
12-1 return: -15.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
15th percentile in sector
D-
Revenue growth (YoY): +2.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
32nd percentile in sector
C-
Forward E/P: 4.5% · EBITDA/EV: 5.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
48th percentile in sector
C+
Profit margin: +6.5% · Return on equity: +16.7%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
Flowserve (FLS) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Zacks · 21h ago
Watsco (WSO) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Zacks · Oct 20
1 Mid-Cap Stock Worth Your Attention and 2 That Underwhelm
StockStory · Oct 16
Fastenal Q3 Earnings Beat on Expense Leverage, Sales Miss Estimates
Zacks · Oct 14
Watsco (WSO): Temporary Industry Lull Overshadows Digitization Advantage
Insider Monkey · Oct 13

Key stats

Market value$12.6B
P/E (last 12 months)26.1
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)23.0
52-week range$277.34 – $459.00
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+2.1%
Dividend yield4.37%
Analyst consensusHold (10)
Average analyst price target$349.90 (+16%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 23%
▼Forward P/E vs sector23.0x vs median 17.1x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.3x
▲Analyst target+16% (10 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$151
-50%
growth -4% · disc. 10.5% · term. 2.0%
Base
$232
-23%
growth 1% · disc. 9.5% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$340
+12%
growth 4% · disc. 8.5% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 5% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+5%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+0%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+1%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+0%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+7%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.7B, 9.5% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.04 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.4× · 49th pct
26.1×
cheaper
Forward P/E
sector median 17.1× · 75th pct
23.0×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.8× · 63rd pct
16.9×
pricier
Price / sales
sector median 2.1× · 43rd pct
1.7×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 56th pct
4.2×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.5% · 60th pct
5.5%
cheaper

Forward EPS $13.27 vs trailing $11.67 (+14% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
27.5%
Operating margin
9.4%
FCF margin
9.6%
Net margin
6.5%
Return on equity
15.9%
Return on invested capital
19.8%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.3×
Current ratio
3.2×
Interest cover
168.8×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
1.5×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✗ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✓ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$350
+16%
Analysts
10
Hold
Range
$315–$433
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$7.2B$497.0M$535.1M
2024$7.6B$536.3M$743.0M
2023$7.3B$536.3M$526.5M
2022$7.3B$601.2M$536.3M
2021$6.3B$418.9M$324.1M
2020$5.1B$269.6M$517.9M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR -0.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-10-27 · before open · EPS est 4.11
24-1025-0225-0425-0725-1026-0226-0426-070.004.83
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-07-294.394.00-8.8%
2026-04-281.681.87+11.4%
2026-02-171.891.68-11.1%
2025-10-294.293.98-7.3%
2025-07-304.834.52-6.3%
2025-04-232.251.93-14.3%
2025-02-182.202.37+7.9%
2024-10-234.744.22-10.9%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$2.1B+2.1%
2026-03-31$1.5B–
2025-12-31$1.6B–
2025-09-30$2.1B–
2025-06-30$2.1B–
Analyst actions
Mizuho
2026-10-15 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $325
Morgan Stanley
2026-10-12 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $330
Stephens & Co.
2026-08-17 · reit
Overweight → Overweight
PT $485
DA Davidson
2026-07-30 · main
Neutral → Neutral
PT $330
Baird
2026-07-28 · main
Outperform → Outperform
PT $420
Morgan Stanley
2026-07-10 · main
Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
PT $405

Recent dividends

2026-10-16: $3.300 · 2026-07-16: $3.300 · 2026-04-16: $3.300 · 2026-01-16: $3.000 · 2025-10-16: $3.000 · 2025-07-16: $3.000 · 2025-04-15: $3.000 · 2025-01-17: $2.700
Insider trades
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:06:50 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

Free. Not investment advice. Unsubscribe anytime.

coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau Systematic Strategies publishes stock research and model portfolios. Results are hypothetical unless marked Live. Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR and the House Clerk.

Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026