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CWST

Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
$90.22
-3.06% Oct 21 close
IndustrialsS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-13%-3%+6%+16%+25%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
CWSTSPY
1W
+10.2%
1M
+3.6%
3M
-0.2%
6M
+11.6%
YTD
-7.9%
1Y
+3.4%

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What they do

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the United States. The company offers resource management expertise and services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers. It also provides non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections.

Industrials · Waste Management

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
27th percentile in sector
D+
12-1 return: -9.3%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
75th percentile in sector
B+
Revenue growth (YoY): +16.9%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
20th percentile in sector
D
Forward E/P: 1.6% · EBITDA/EV: 6.0%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
8th percentile in sector
D-
Profit margin: +0.3% · Return on equity: +0.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
Casella Waste Systems shares gain after Jana Partners discloses stake
Investing.com · Oct 20

Key stats

Market value$5.7B
P/E (last 12 months)1,002.4
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)62.8
52-week range$74.05 – $107.96
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+16.9%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (10)
Average analyst price target$106.50 (+18%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Leans expensive
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score -2 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 19%
▼Forward P/E vs sector62.8x vs median 17.1x
•Piotroski F-score5/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA-0.1x
▲Analyst target+18% (10 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$39
-57%
growth 11% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$73
-19%
growth 18% · disc. 8.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$127
+41%
growth 23% · disc. 7.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 17% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+17%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
-1%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
+22%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+19%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+19%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.1B, 8.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net cash and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2025; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.78 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Industrials

P/E (trailing)
sector median 26.4× · 100th pct
 1,002.4×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 17.1× · 100th pct
 62.8×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 14.8× · 49th pct
 14.6×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 2.1× · 62nd pct
 2.9×
pricier
Price / book
sector median 3.5× · 51st pct
 3.6×
pricier
FCF yield
sector median 4.5% · 13th pct
 1.8%
pricier

Forward EPS $1.44 vs trailing $0.09 (+1496% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
33.4%
Operating margin
3.4%
FCF margin
5.4%
Net margin
0.3%
Return on equity
0.4%
Return on invested capital
2.8%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1×
Current ratio
1.0×
Interest cover
1.0×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
61.6×
Piotroski F-score 5/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✗ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✗ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$106
+18%
Analysts
10
Buy
Range
$91–$130
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$1.8B$7.9M$84.7M
2024$1.6B$13.5M$78.1M
2023$1.3B$25.4M$78.2M
2022$1.1B$53.1M$86.4M
2021$889.2M$41.1M$59.4M
2020$774.6M$91.1M$31.8M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +19.2%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-09 · during market · EPS est 0.38
24-1025-0225-0525-0725-1026-0226-0426-080.000.42
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-060.290.40+36.1%
2026-04-300.120.20+69.7%
2026-02-190.220.30+33.5%
2025-10-300.320.42+29.5%
2025-07-310.330.36+10.1%
2025-05-010.100.19+85.0%
2025-02-120.160.41+159.3%
2024-10-300.280.27-2.4%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$543.7M+16.9%
2026-03-31$457.3M–
2025-12-31$469.1M–
2025-09-30$485.4M–
2025-06-30$465.3M–
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-21 · JP Morgan reiterated Neutral on CWST
Downgrade
2026-10-21 · UBS downgraded CWST from Buy to Neutral
Reiterated
2026-10-08 · JP Morgan reiterated Neutral on CWST
Reiterated
2026-08-10 · JP Morgan reiterated Neutral on CWST
Reiterated
2026-08-10 · Barclays reiterated Overweight on CWST
Reiterated
2026-06-26 · UBS reiterated Buy on CWST

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Insider trades
Burke Michael K
Director · 2026-09-03
Sell
$104.8K
Burke Michael K
Director · 2026-08-26
Sell
$102.3K
Casella Douglas R
Director, VICE CHAIRMAN, BD OF DIRECTORS · 2026-08-14
Sell
$122.4K
Casella Douglas R
Director, VICE CHAIRMAN, BD OF DIRECTORS · 2026-08-13
Sell
$1.2M
Casella Douglas R
Director, VICE CHAIRMAN, BD OF DIRECTORS · 2026-08-13
Sell
$167.1K
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:22:58 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026