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EYE

National Vision Holdings, Inc.
$17.72
-1.28% Oct 21 close
Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 600 CompareTechnicals
1M3M6M1Y2Y
-39%-25%-11%+3%+17%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 2026
EYESPY
1W
+4.1%
1M
+7.7%
3M
-10.6%
6M
-29.7%
YTD
-31.4%
1Y
-29.9%

Live chart

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What they do

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products. It also offers health maintenance organization and optometric services.

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

Momentum
10th percentile in sector
D-
12-1 return: -36.4%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Growth
40th percentile in sector
C
Revenue growth (YoY): +2.5%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Value
49th percentile in sector
C+
Forward E/P: 6.9% · EBITDA/EV: 9.1%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Profitability
20th percentile in sector
D
Profit margin: +2.5% · Return on equity: +5.8%
Percentile within its GICS sector across the S&P 1500.
Revisions
Not enough data yet
–
EPS estimate change, 30 days (current FY): –
30-day change in analysts' current-year EPS estimate; graded across covered stocks.

Our models

Not held by any of our 5 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
 New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
 Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

News

More news
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MT Newswires · Oct 21
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ACCESS Newswire · Oct 21
Family offices eye shift to alternative investments: Study
Private Banker International · Oct 21
Starbucks expected to build on US sales momentum as investors eye 2027 outlook
Proactive · Oct 20

Key stats

Market value$1.4B
P/E (last 12 months)28.6
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)14.7
52-week range$14.75 – $30.02
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+2.5%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusBuy (10)
Average analyst price target$27.50 (+55%)
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
Roughly fairly valued
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼DCF (base case)below the price by 54%
•Forward P/E vs sector14.7x vs median 13.4x
▲Piotroski F-score7/9
▲Net debt / EBITDA1.1x
▲Analyst target+55% (10 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Bear
$4
-76%
growth -0% · disc. 10.2% · term. 2.0%
Base
$8
-54%
growth 5% · disc. 9.2% · term. 2.5%
Bull
$14
-23%
growth 8% · disc. 8.2% · term. 3.0%

A DCF starts from trailing free cash flow, so it can overstate value if the last 12 months were unusually strong (or weak). Use the bear case or edit the starting cash flow if so.

Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Today's price assumes free cash flow grows about 12% a year for 10 years.
Implied
+12%/yr
FCF, last 3 yrs
+135%/yr
FCF, last 5 yrs
-14%/yr
Revenue, last 3 yrs
+7%/yr
Revenue, last 5 yrs
+3%/yr
Same inputs as the DCF above: trailing free cash flow 0.0B, 9.2% discount rate, 2.5% growth after year 10, net debt and today's share count. Actual growth rates are compound annual rates from SEC annual filings through FY2026; "n/a" means too little history or a negative starting year.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-07-04). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 0.98 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary

P/E (trailing)
sector median 17.7× · 80th pct
 28.6×
pricier
Forward P/E
sector median 13.4× · 57th pct
 14.7×
pricier
EV / EBITDA
sector median 11.3× · 35th pct
 9.1×
cheaper
Price / sales
sector median 1.2× · 33rd pct
 0.7×
cheaper
Price / book
sector median 2.8× · 31st pct
 1.6×
cheaper
FCF yield
sector median 6.6% · 25th pct
 3.5%
pricier

Forward EPS $1.20 vs trailing $0.62 (+94% expected growth). Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Backlog (remaining performance obligations)

RPO
$87.8M
as of 2026-07-04
vs a year ago
–
YoY
× TTM revenue
0.04×
coverage
21-01
22-01
22-12
23-12
24-12
26-01
26-04
26-07

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, from SEC filings (XBRL tag RevenueRemainingPerformanceObligation).

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
61.0%
Operating margin
4.1%
FCF margin
2.4%
Net margin
2.5%
Return on equity
5.6%
Return on invested capital
5.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1×
Current ratio
0.6×
Interest cover
3.2×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
2.6×
Piotroski F-score 7/9 · last two fiscal years
✓ Positive net income✓ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✓ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✓ Asset turnover improved

Analysts

Mean target
$28
+55%
Analysts
10
Buy
Range
$20–$35
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2026$2.0B$29.6M$73.5M
2024$1.8B$-28.5M$38.1M
2023$1.8B$-65.9M$58.3M
2022$1.6B$42.1M$5.7M
2022$2.1B$128.2M$163.4M
2021$1.7B$36.3M$158.2M

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +6.5%.

Earnings

Next report: 2026-11-04 · before open · EPS est 0.17
24-1125-0225-0525-0825-1126-0326-0526-08-0.050.45
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)
ReportEPS estActualSurprise
2026-08-120.180.25+37.4%
2026-05-130.430.45+5.3%
2026-03-040.060.15+148.8%
2025-11-050.130.13+0.2%
2025-08-060.140.18+31.1%
2025-05-070.310.34+10.4%
2025-02-26-0.05-0.04+12.3%
2024-11-060.060.12+84.8%

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$498.8M+2.5%
2026-03-31$543.9M–
2025-12-31$503.4M–
2025-09-30$487.3M–
2025-06-30$486.4M–
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-08-13 · UBS reiterated Buy on EYE
Reiterated
2026-08-13 · Citigroup reiterated Buy on EYE
Reiterated
2026-08-13 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Equal-Weight on EYE
Reiterated
2026-05-15 · Citigroup reiterated Buy on EYE
Reiterated
2026-05-14 · UBS reiterated Buy on EYE
Reiterated
2026-05-14 · Morgan Stanley reiterated Equal-Weight on EYE

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Insider trades
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–
None
None · None
Sell
–

Stats refreshed 2026-10-21 18:06:30 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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coteau

Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Beta 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026