coteau ARQ.

RCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
$4.43
+$0.06 (1.37%) Oct 23 close
Industrials CompareTechnicals
-59%-22%+15%+51%+88%Oct 2025Oct 2026Apr 202652w high $18.78Prior close $4.43
RCATSPY
Wall St. Highest PT $25.00 (+464.3%) Wall St. Avg PT $16.29 (+267.6%)
$4$12$19$27$34POC $9Hi $25Avg $16
Underwater Drawdown %Max DD -74.8%Current -74.5%
0.0%-74.8%
Relative Strength vs SPY-70.7% vs SPYUnderperforming
+83%0%-83%
1W
−$0.29 (6.14%)
1M
−$2.16 (32.78%)
3M
−$3.21 (42.02%)
6M
−$7.37 (62.46%)
YTD
−$3.50 (44.14%)
1Y
−$5.71 (56.31%)

Chart

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Ratings & dials

1m · 5m · 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D

Analyst & Morningstar ratings

Consensus · Targets · Morningstar
Wall Street analyst consensus
SellHoldStrong Buy
Strong Buy
7 analysts · mean score 1.43
1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Sell
Strong Buy114%
Buy571%
Hold114%
Underperform00%
Sell00%
Wall Street consensus
Analyst price targets
Current price$4.43
Average target$16.29
+$11.86 (+267.6%) upsideaverage target vs current price
CurrentAverageMedian
Low$6.00
Median$15.00
High$25.00
12-month Wall Street target range
Recent analyst rating changes · 16
Reiterated
2026-10-23 · Piper Sandler reiterated Neutral on RCAT
Reiterated
2026-10-20 · Needham reiterated Buy on RCAT
Initiated
2026-09-02 · Piper Sandler started covering RCAT at Neutral
Initiated
2026-08-31 · Evercore ISI Group started covering RCAT at Outperform
Reiterated
2026-08-07 · HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated Buy on RCAT
Reiterated
2026-08-07 · Needham reiterated Buy on RCAT

Third-party ratings, not Coteau's views.

Health check

Financial health
DistressGrey zoneSafe
Safe zone
Altman Z-score 6.9
Above 2.99 is the safe zone, below 1.81 the distress zone.
Quality
WeakAverageStrong
Weak
Piotroski F-score 3 of 9
See the tests
  • ✗Positive net income
  • ✗Positive operating cash flow
  • ✓Return on assets improved
  • ✗Cash flow above net income
  • ✓Long-term debt / assets fell
  • ✓Current ratio improved
  • ✗No share dilution
  • ✗Gross margin improved
  • ✗Asset turnover improved

Computed by Coteau from the company's SEC filings (latest balance sheet Jun 30, 2026). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Key stats & company

Market value$676.5M
P/E (next 12 months, estimated)-10.1
52-week range$4.14 – $18.78
Revenue growth (latest quarter vs a year ago)+527.2%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Analyst consensusStrong Buy (7)
Average analyst price target$16.29 (+268%)

What they do

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. provides drone and robotic solutions for defense, national security, and commercial applications in the United States. The company designs and manufactures small and tactical unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), such as BLACK WIDOW. It also develops and produces long-endurance, vertical takeoff, and landing fixed-wing unmanned aircraft systems designed for extended-range intelligence, surveillance.

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Valuation and fundamentals

Valuation & fundamentals

Bottom line
No cash-flow valuation
Model read-out from the numbers below, not advice. Score +0 (DCF counts double).
▼Piotroski F-score3/9
▲Altman Z6.9 (safe)
▲Analyst target+268% (7 analysts)

Discounted cash flow

Trailing free cash flow is negative or missing, so a cash-flow DCF isn't meaningful by default. You can enter your own assumptions below.
Reverse DCFfor context, not a signal
Trailing free cash flow is zero or negative, so there's no growth rate to solve for. The price is betting on a turnaround to positive cash flow.
Edit assumptions · recalculates instantly
Your value per share–

Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital spending, trailing 12 months (TTM to 2026-06-30). Growth default: average of 3-year revenue CAGR and latest revenue growth, capped at 30%. Years 6–10 fade linearly to terminal growth. Discount rate = 4.25% risk-free assumption + beta 1.51 × 5% equity premium, kept within 7–13%. Bear: lower growth, +1 pt discount, 2% terminal. Bull: higher growth, −1 pt, 3%.

Multiples vs sector

Forward EPS $-0.44 vs trailing $-0.80. Forward P/E uses analysts' next-12-month estimate.

Quality & financial health

Gross margin
9.7%
Operating margin
-150.1%
FCF margin
-38.8%
Net margin
-136.3%
Return on equity
-20.7%
Return on invested capital
-18.8%
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Current ratio
14.9×
Interest cover
8,854.1×
Cash conversion (OCF/NI)
–
Piotroski F-score 3/9 · last two fiscal years
✗ Positive net income✗ Positive operating cash flow✓ Return on assets improved✗ Cash flow above net income✓ Long-term debt / assets fell✓ Current ratio improved✗ No share dilution✗ Gross margin improved✗ Asset turnover improved

Altman Z-score 6.9 (safe zone; above 3.0 = safe, below 1.8 = distress). Not meaningful for banks and insurers.

Analysts

Mean target
$16
+268%
Analysts
7
Strong Buy
Range
$6–$25
low – high
● price · ◆ mean target

Annual history

FYRevenueNet incomeFree cash flow
2025$40.7M$-72.1M–
2024$17.8M$-24.1M–
2023$1.3M$-28.1M$-29.2M
2022$6.4M$-11.7M$-16.0M
2021$5.0M$-13.2M$-1.4M
2020$403.9K$-1.6M$-811.6K

From the company's 10-K filings via SEC XBRL. 3-year revenue CAGR +85.0%.

For information only · Important disclosures

Grades vs sector

No sector grades for RCAT yet. Grades rank S&P 1500 stocks within their sector and refresh after each daily data run, so a stock outside that index or newly covered has none.

Systematic Models

Not held by any of our 7 live models right now.

Quality Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Top 15
Outside this model's universe or screens
Momentum Blend
Not in the current book
New Highs Growth
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power
Outside this model's universe or screens
Coteau Long Book
Not in the current book

Earnings & events

RCAT earningsNext report in 12 days
Next report
Thu Nov 5, 2026Time not confirmed
EPS consensus-$0.18 range -$0.18–-$0.18
Revenue consensus$40.7M 5 analysts
Last 4 quarters · EPS vs estimate
Aug 6, 2026-$0.23est -$0.17−34.9%Below estimates
May 7, 2026-$0.22est -$0.12−88.6%Below estimates
Mar 18, 2026-$0.17est -$0.15−13.3%Below estimates
Nov 13, 2025-$0.16est -$0.10−60.0%Below estimates

In line = within 1% of the estimate.

Source: Yahoo Finance · refreshed 2026-10-24 22:42:43 ET
24-0324-0825-0525-0825-1126-0326-0526-08-0.270.00
EstimateActual (beat)Actual (miss)

Quarterly revenue

QuarterRevenueYoY
2026-06-30$20.2M+527.3%
2026-03-31$15.5M–
2025-12-31$26.2M–
2025-09-30$9.6M–
2025-06-30$3.2M–

News & catalysts

More news
Red Cat Jumps 8% on Cash Offer for Steyr Motors; AeroVironment and Kratos Edge Higher
24/7 Wall St. · Oct 19
Rating changes
Reiterated
2026-10-23 · Piper Sandler reiterated Neutral on RCAT
Reiterated
2026-10-20 · Needham reiterated Buy on RCAT
Initiated
2026-09-02 · Piper Sandler started covering RCAT at Neutral
Initiated
2026-08-31 · Evercore ISI Group started covering RCAT at Outperform
Reiterated
2026-08-07 · HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated Buy on RCAT
Reiterated
2026-08-07 · Needham reiterated Buy on RCAT

Third-party analyst actions, not Coteau's views. All rating changes

Stats refreshed 2026-10-24 22:42:43 ET from Yahoo Finance (yfinance). "–" means the data isn't available. Refresh now

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Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026