Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power
14-stock systematic rules model targeting the 4 physical bottlenecks of AI compute: 30% Independent Power & Nuclear Baseload, 30% High-Voltage Grid & Thermal Cooling, 25% Fiber/Data-Center EPC & Optical Interconnect, and 15% Compute & Silicon Anchor.
Backtest +33.0% a year vs S&P 500 +15.2% (2016–2026, hypothetical)14 holdings · updated Oct 1, 2026
Since it started being tracked live at the Oct 1 close, it is up 4.0%, while the S&P 500 was up 14.9% over the same days. That is 10.9 points behind.
In a simulation on past data (2016–2026), these rules averaged a gain of 33.0% a year, against 15.2% a year for the S&P 500. A simulation is not a real result, and real results are usually lower.
Its deepest fall from a high in that simulation was 18.4% (the S&P 500's was 23.9%).
It holds 14 stocks and the rules re-run monthly; the next re-run is Oct 30.
This describes a research model. It is not advice, and no one's money is in it.
For information only · Important disclosures
| Period | Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power | S&P 500 (SPY) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.7% | -0.5% | -0.1 pts |
| 1W | -6.5% | -0.4% | -6.1 pts |
| 1M | -11.4% | -1.0% | -10.3 pts |
| 3M | -19.6% | +3.1% | -22.7 pts |
| 6M | -26.5% | +7.0% | -33.5 pts |
| 1Y | +2.9% | +14.4% | -11.5 pts |
| YTD | +2.8% | +12.3% | -9.5 pts |
| Since start | +4.0% | +14.9% | -10.9 pts |
How it's measured · not investment advice
The published weights, held from the Oct 1, 2025 close and reset only at dated rebalances, valued at delayed daily closes (Yahoo Finance). No backtest figures. Before fees, taxes and trading costs. Research only, not investment advice; Coteau doesn't manage money.
Coteau Physical AI Grid & Power · Allocation Pie
14 positions · 100%Interactive weighting by individual position or sector/asset sleeve
Holdings (14)
As of the Oct 1, 2026 rebalance
NRG7.0% weight · brownfield data-center powered land + free cash flow yield
7.0%
TLN6.0% weight · AWS nuclear co-location pioneer + PJM capacity auction tailwind
6.0%
GEV8.0% weight · multi-year slot reservation backlog in HA gas turbines & grid transformers
8.0%
VRT8.0% weight · critical thermal & power management for Blackwell/Rubin racks
8.0%
ETN7.0% weight · 4+ year electrical transformer backlog + hyperscale switchgear dominance
7.0%
PWR7.0% weight · #1 North American utility transmission & substation specialty contractor
7.0%
ANET7.0% weight · ultra-low-latency AI Ethernet cluster fabric leader
7.0%
DY7.0% weight · multi-billion hyperscale inter-campus dark fiber buildout
7.0%
CIEN6.0% weight · 800G/1.6T coherent optical pluggables connecting distributed AI clusters
6.0%
NVDA8.0% weight · sovereign & hyperscale AI factory silicon anchor
8.0%
AVGO7.0% weight · custom AI ASICs + PCIe/Ethernet switching silicon duopoly
7.0%Why each stock is held
CEG 9.0% max cap · largest US merchant nuclear fleet + Microsoft/hyperscale baseload PPAs. Qualified on 9.0% max cap, largest US merchant nuclear fleet + Microsoft/hyperscale baseload PPAs. Ranked 1st of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
VST 8.0% weight · PJM/ERCOT nuclear + gas fleet with aggressive buybacks. Qualified on 8.0% weight, PJM/ERCOT nuclear + gas fleet with aggressive buybacks. Ranked 2nd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
NRG 7.0% weight · brownfield data-center powered land + free cash flow yield. Qualified on 7.0% weight, brownfield data-center powered land + free cash flow yield. Ranked 3rd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
TLN 6.0% weight · AWS nuclear co-location pioneer + PJM capacity auction tailwind. Qualified on 6.0% weight, AWS nuclear co-location pioneer + PJM capacity auction tailwind. Ranked 4th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
GEV 8.0% weight · multi-year slot reservation backlog in HA gas turbines & grid transformers. Qualified on 8.0% weight, multi-year slot reservation backlog in HA gas turbines & grid transformers. Ranked 5th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
VRT 8.0% weight · critical thermal & power management for Blackwell/Rubin racks. Qualified on 8.0% weight, critical thermal & power management for Blackwell/Rubin racks. Ranked 6th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
ETN 7.0% weight · 4+ year electrical transformer backlog + hyperscale switchgear dominance. Qualified on 7.0% weight, 4+ year electrical transformer backlog + hyperscale switchgear dominance. Ranked 7th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
PWR 7.0% weight · #1 North American utility transmission & substation specialty contractor. Qualified on 7.0% weight, #1 North American utility transmission & substation specialty contractor. Ranked 8th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
ANET 7.0% weight · ultra-low-latency AI Ethernet cluster fabric leader. Qualified on 7.0% weight, ultra-low-latency AI Ethernet cluster fabric leader. Ranked 9th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
DY 7.0% weight · multi-billion hyperscale inter-campus dark fiber buildout. Qualified on 7.0% weight, multi-billion hyperscale inter-campus dark fiber buildout. Ranked 10th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
CIEN 6.0% weight · 800G/1.6T coherent optical pluggables connecting distributed AI clusters. Qualified on 6.0% weight, 800G/1.6T coherent optical pluggables connecting distributed AI clusters. Ranked 11th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
MTZ 5.0% weight · natural gas pipeline + high-voltage transmission + fiber civil contractor. Qualified on 5.0% weight, natural gas pipeline + high-voltage transmission + fiber civil contractor. Ranked 12th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
NVDA 8.0% weight · sovereign & hyperscale AI factory silicon anchor. Qualified on 8.0% weight, sovereign & hyperscale AI factory silicon anchor. Ranked 13th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
AVGO 7.0% weight · custom AI ASICs + PCIe/Ethernet switching silicon duopoly. Qualified on 7.0% weight, custom AI ASICs + PCIe/Ethernet switching silicon duopoly. Ranked 14th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance. Drops out if it falls outside the top 14 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).
How it works
What it owns. 14 US-listed infrastructure and compute leaders across four structural sleeves: 30% Independent Power & Nuclear Baseload (CEG, VST, NRG, TLN), 30% High-Voltage Grid & Thermal Cooling (GEV, VRT, ETN, PWR), 25% Fiber, Data-Center EPC & Optical Interconnect (ANET, DY, CIEN, MTZ), and 15% Compute & Silicon Anchor (NVDA, AVGO).
How positions are weighted. Within each sleeve, constituents are weighted by Inverse-Volatility x 6-Month Momentum (6M return divided by 60-day realized volatility), subject to a strict 9.0% maximum single-stock cap at rebalance.
How trend protection works. At each monthly rebalance, any constituent closing more than 8% below its 200-day moving average rotates its sleeve weight into BOXX / SGOV T-bills until it reclaims its 200-day average.
Which stocks qualify. US-listed companies ($2B+ market cap, $20M+ daily dollar volume) with contracted power/grid/optical backlog or positive free cash flow directly supplying AI data-center power, cooling, interconnect, or silicon.
What can go wrong. Concentrated exposure to hyperscale data-center capital expenditure means a slowdown in cloud AI capex or power-market regulatory changes can impact all four sleeves simultaneously.
Universe: US-listed AI power generation, grid equipment, thermal management, fiber EPC & compute leaders ($2B+ market cap).
Backtest details in-sample vs out-of-sample
| 16–21 in-sample | 22–26 out-of-sample | Full | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per year | +28.3% | +38.4% | +33.0% |
| SPY | +18.3% | +12.0% | +15.2% |
| Max drop | -18.4% | -9.4% | -18.4% |
| Volatility | 16.4% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| Sharpe | 1.62 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Turnover 16.8% a month. Best year +52.8% (2020), worst +1.2% (2018).
Evaluated monthly from Oct 2016 through Sep 2026 net of 10 bps per-side trading costs across the 4 physical AI infrastructure sleeves.
Evaluated monthly from Oct 2016 through Sep 2026 net of 10 bps per-side trading costs across the 4 physical AI infrastructure sleeves.
Disclosures
Systematic 14-stock rules model targeting the 4 physical bottlenecks of AI compute: 30% Independent Power & Nuclear Baseload, 30% High-Voltage Grid & Thermal Cooling, 25% Fiber/Data-Center Engineering & Optical Interconnect, and 15% Compute & Silicon Anchor.
Position sizing: weighted by Inverse-Volatility x 6-Month Momentum with a strict 9% maximum cap per stock, rebalanced monthly.
Trend discipline: any constituent closing more than 8% below its 200-day moving average at month-end automatically rotates its sleeve weight into BOXX / SGOV T-bills until trend recovery.
Trading costs of 10 bps per side are deducted at every monthly rebalance. Backtest results are hypothetical and do not predict future returns.
Costs: 10 bps per side ($2B+ market cap) on every dollar traded; no taxes or other slippage; cash earns 0%. Backtests are hypothetical.
Research only: a model portfolio for information, not personal advice and not an account anyone manages. Past results don't predict future returns.
Models can be wrong; holdings may be aggressive, speculative or out of date.
The author may hold positions in securities discussed here, including this model's holdings, and may buy or sell them at any time. See the disclaimer.
Get the market emails
Morning Brief (8 AM ET) & Market Close (4:30 PM ET), weekdaysIndexes, sectors, biggest movers, rates, top news, Coteau model changes and what's ahead. Free, two short emails each weekday.
Check your inbox to confirm
We sent a link to . Tap it to start your emails. Nothing is sent until you confirm.
Not there in a minute? Check spam, or .
Dev mode No email provider here, so the confirm link is shown: Open confirm link
Free to use. No card, no ads, no auto-renew.
Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app
Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026