M&A & Arbitrage
Merger Spreads & Deal Odds
Live cash spread, implied closing probability and stage for pending takeovers.
Pending Cash Deals
8
Definitive agreements
Median Gross Spread
+4.5%
Current vs. cash offer
Median Annualized
11.7%/yr
To stated close window
Avg Implied Close
~87%
Market-implied odds
Braze, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $47.50
+3.5%
2.8%/yr
>95%
Odds
✓ Announced
● HSR / Reg
○ Vote
🎯 Salesforce fiscal 2028 (Feb 2027 - Jan 2028)
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-10-20
Window: 464d left (Salesforce fiscal 2028 (Feb 2027 - Jan 2028))
Break downside: -34.5% (to $30.04)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdi · All-Cash Offer $7.75
+1.0%
2.4%/yr
~85%
Odds
✓ Announced
● HSR / Reg
○ Vote
🎯 Q1 2027
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-10-15
Window: 158d left (Q1 2027)
Break downside: -0.4% (to $7.64)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
Sangoma Technologies Corporatio · All-Cash Offer $–
+–%
Spread
~85%
Odds
✓ Announced
● HSR / Reg
○ Vote
🎯 Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-09-28
Break downside: -24.3% (to $3.55)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
Mistras Group Inc · All-Cash Offer $20.35 · Go-Shop Active
+-5.5%
Spread
~85%
Odds
✓ Announced
● HSR / Reg
○ Vote
🎯 Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-09-18
Break downside: -7.8% (to $19.84)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
Go-shop: Ends Oct 27, 2026
Harte Hanks, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $5.00
+27.6%
Spread
~55%
Odds
✓ Announced
● HSR / Reg
○ Vote
🎯 Close
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-08-14
Break downside: -28.3% (to $2.81)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
Accelerant Holdings · All-Cash Offer $20.25
+2.4%
3.6%/yr
>95%
Odds
✓ Announced
● HSR / Reg
○ Vote
🎯 First half of 2027
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-08-13
Window: 249d left (First half of 2027)
Break downside: -31.2% (to $13.61)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · State insurance regulators · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
MarineMax, Inc. (FL) · All-Cash Offer $53.00
+0.8%
4.2%/yr
>95%
Odds
✓ Announced
✓ HSR / Reg
● Vote
🎯 By end of 2026
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-08-10
Window: 68d left (By end of 2026)
Break downside: -32.2% (to $35.68)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Buyer financing (private-equity buyer)
CBIZ, Inc. · All-Cash Offer $55.00
+0.1%
0.6%/yr
>95%
Odds
✓ Announced
✓ HSR / Reg
● Vote
🎯 Q4 2026
Deal terms, break downside & regulatory hurdles⌄
Announced: 2026-07-29
Window: 68d left (Q4 2026)
Break downside: -15.0% (to $46.70)
Key hurdles: Target shareholder vote · U.S. antitrust (HSR) waiting period · Possible antitrust overlap review (strategic buyer)
How market-implied closing odds & annualized spreads work⌄
Implied closing odds: (Current price − Pre-deal price) ÷ (Offer discounted at 4%/yr − Pre-deal price), rounded to the nearest 5%. Assumes the stock reverts to its pre-announcement close if the deal breaks.
Annualized spread: Gross cash spread annualized to the end of the stated closing window. Research only; not investment advice. · Disclosures
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Independent research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app
Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026