Systematic model

Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield

For information only · Important disclosures

A rules-based tactical barbell pairing a structural 25% BOXX (1-3 Month Box Spread T-Bill ETF) dry-powder shield with 15 equal-weight (5% each) mid-cap relative-strength and positive EPS revision leaders ($2B-$80B market cap, max 3 per sector). Steps up to 50% BOXX when SPY closes below its 200-day moving average or VIX exceeds 24.

Return over

-0.8%

SPY -0.5% Live

-0.8%

Live

-0.5%

Live

-7.8%

Live

-9.8%

Live

-15.0%

Live

YTD

-18.0%

Live

-18.3%

Live

Incep.

-15.3%

Live

Model page ›Prices as of Oct 23, 202616 holdings

+0.00%

Total return this year

Consolidated across 16 holdings · SPY +12.32% (-12.32% vs SPY)

Running returns Live

From the Oct 1, 2025 close · through Oct 23, 2026

Period	Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield	S&P 500 (SPY)	Difference
1D	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2 pts
1W	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.1 pts
1M	-7.8%	-1.0%	-6.8 pts
3M	-9.8%	+3.1%	-12.9 pts
6M	-15.0%	+7.0%	-22.0 pts
1Y	-18.3%	+14.4%	-32.6 pts
YTD	-18.0%	+12.3%	-30.3 pts
Since start	-15.3%	+14.9%	-30.3 pts

How it's measured · not investment advice

The published weights, held from the Oct 1, 2025 close and reset only at dated rebalances, valued at delayed daily closes (Yahoo Finance). No backtest figures. Before fees, taxes and trading costs. Research only, not investment advice; Coteau doesn't manage money.

Models can be wrong; holdings may be aggressive, speculative or out of date. The author may hold positions in securities discussed here, including this portfolio's holdings, and may buy or sell them at any time. See the disclaimer.

Live since inception vs SPY

Published and tracked from Oct 1, 2025 close

PortfolioSPY

Look-back Backtested

Hypothetical: today's weights held unchanged over each past period. Not the portfolio's actual history.

Today's weights, held 1YSPY

Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield · Allocation Pie

16 positions · 100%

Interactive weighting by individual position or sector/asset sleeve

Top weight: BOXX (25.0%) · Lead sleeve: Fixed Income / T-Bill Shield (25.0%)

       BOXX
      

25.0%

Fixed Income / T-Bill Shield

ACM

5.0%

Industrials & Infrastructure

       AMTM
      

5.0%

Defense & Engineering

       ANET
      

5.0%

AI Cloud Networking

BSX

5.0%

Healthcare & MedTech

       CDRE
      

5.0%

Defense & Safety

CLS

5.0%

AI Hardware & EMS

       CPRT
      

5.0%

Industrials

DY

5.0%

Industrials & Fiber

       FTAI
      

5.0%

Industrials & Aerospace

       +6 More
      

30.0%

Diversified

Holdings (16)

BOXX Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF 25.0%
+0.1% today

Fixed Income / T-Bill Shield · $118.76 · 1M +0.4% · 1Y +4.1% · stock page →

25.0% structural T-Bill dry-powder shield (steps to 50% if SPY < 200-DMA or VIX > 24) · 5.1% annualized box-spread yield

Why it's in the model #1 of 160

Qualified on 25.0% structural T-Bill dry-powder shield (steps to 50% if SPY < 200-DMA or VIX > 24), 5.1% annualized box-spread yield. Ranked 1st of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. 5.0%
-2.0% today

Industrials & Aerospace · $154.37 · 1M -17.0% · 1Y -12.7% · stock page →

+68% 6M RS · +24% 90d EPS revisions · 13F accumulation leader

Why it's in the model #2 of 160

Qualified on +68% 6M RS, +24% 90d EPS revisions, 13F accumulation leader. Ranked 2nd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

NRG NRG Energy 5.0%
-2.2% today

Utilities · $92.31 · 1M -8.3% · 1Y -43.0% · stock page →

+54% 6M RS · aggressive share cannibals + data-center power uprates

Why it's in the model #3 of 160

Qualified on +54% 6M RS, aggressive share cannibals + data-center power uprates. Ranked 3rd of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

DY Dycom Industries 5.0%
-0.3% today

Industrials · $224.56 · 1M -20.1% · 1Y -21.6% · stock page →

+49% 6M RS · record backlog from AI data-center fiber builds

Why it's in the model #4 of 160

Qualified on +49% 6M RS, record backlog from AI data-center fiber builds. Ranked 4th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

ANET Arista Networks 5.0%
+0.8% today

Information Technology · $172.37 · 1M -15.3% · 1Y +12.8% · stock page →

+44% 6M RS · 42% operating margin · zero debt balance sheet

Why it's in the model #5 of 160

Qualified on +44% 6M RS, 42% operating margin, zero debt balance sheet. Ranked 5th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

CLS Celestica Inc. 5.0%
-3.3% today

AI Hardware & EMS · $260.01 · 1M -28.1% · 1Y -8.0% · stock page →

+61% 6M RS · hyperscale custom TPU/ASIC rack assembly leader

Why it's in the model #6 of 160

Qualified on +61% 6M RS, hyperscale custom TPU/ASIC rack assembly leader. Ranked 6th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

VKTX Viking Therapeutics Inc. 5.0%
-5.5% today

Biotech & Healthcare · $24.40 · 1M -41.4% · 1Y -28.1% · stock page →

Phase 3 VANQUISH obesity readout catalyst + clean cash runway

Why it's in the model #7 of 160

Qualified on Phase 3 VANQUISH obesity readout catalyst + clean cash runway. Ranked 7th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

INSM Insmed Inc. 5.0%
-1.8% today

Biotech & Healthcare · $93.39 · 1M -21.1% · 1Y -41.7% · stock page →

+46% 6M RS · blockbuster bronchiectasis commercial ramp

Why it's in the model #8 of 160

Qualified on +46% 6M RS, blockbuster bronchiectasis commercial ramp. Ranked 8th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

BSX Boston Scientific 5.0%
-0.7% today

Health Care · $45.69 · 1M +2.4% · 1Y -55.4% · stock page →

+31% 6M RS · category-defining electrophysiology organic growth

Why it's in the model #9 of 160

Qualified on +31% 6M RS, category-defining electrophysiology organic growth. Ranked 9th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

KKR KKR & Co. 5.0%
-1.9% today

Financials · $91.34 · 1M -6.0% · 1Y -23.9% · stock page →

+36% 6M RS · fee-related earnings compounding + Global Atlantic scale

Why it's in the model #10 of 160

Qualified on +36% 6M RS, fee-related earnings compounding + Global Atlantic scale. Ranked 10th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

ACM AECOM 5.0%
+0.2% today

Industrials · $59.09 · 1M -5.6% · 1Y -55.2% · stock page →

+28% 6M RS · record design backlog + high-ROIC consulting mix

Why it's in the model #11 of 160

Qualified on +28% 6M RS, record design backlog + high-ROIC consulting mix. Ranked 11th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

CPRT Copart 5.0%
-0.3% today

Industrials · $29.00 · 1M +0.5% · 1Y -35.1% · stock page →

+25% 6M RS · net cash fortress + global total-loss frequency tailwind

Why it's in the model #12 of 160

Qualified on +25% 6M RS, net cash fortress + global total-loss frequency tailwind. Ranked 12th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

AMTM Amentum 5.0%
+2.2% today

Industrials · $21.76 · 1M +10.4% · 1Y -6.0% · stock page →

+34% 6M RS · $45B+ federal mission-critical backlog & deleveraging

Why it's in the model #13 of 160

Qualified on +34% 6M RS, $45B+ federal mission-critical backlog & deleveraging. Ranked 13th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

CDRE Cadre Holdings Inc. 5.0%
+1.8% today

Defense & Safety · $29.99 · 1M +12.3% · 1Y -28.8% · stock page →

+29% 6M RS · recurring duty gear + nuclear safety M&A compounding

Why it's in the model #14 of 160

Qualified on +29% 6M RS, recurring duty gear + nuclear safety M&A compounding. Ranked 14th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

PINS Pinterest 5.0%
-2.7% today

Communication Services · $22.32 · 1M +21.0% · 1Y -33.3% · stock page →

+27% 6M RS · lower-funnel direct-response ad load & ARPU inflection

Why it's in the model #15 of 160

Qualified on +27% 6M RS, lower-funnel direct-response ad load & ARPU inflection. Ranked 15th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

OCUL Ocular Therapeutix Inc. 5.0%
-1.7% today

Biotech & Healthcare · $6.50 · 1M -35.0% · 1Y -43.2% · stock page →

SOL-1 superiority readout + multi-billion retina franchise potential

Why it's in the model #16 of 160

Qualified on SOL-1 superiority readout + multi-billion retina franchise potential. Ranked 16th of 160 at the 2026-10-01 rebalance.

What would knock it out: Drops out if it falls outside the top 16 at the next rebalance (Oct 30).

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Systematic research · Not investment advice · Hypothetical unless marked Live · Data: Yahoo Finance (15-min delayed), SEC EDGAR, House Clerk · Important disclosures · Contact desk@coteau.app

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Coteau 0.9 · Oct 21, 2026

Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield

Live since inception vs SPY

Look-back Backtested

Coteau Barbell Momentum & T-Bill Shield · Allocation Pie

Holdings (16)

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Important disclosures