Deal odds

Closing chance is what the stock price implies, not a forecast of ours: (price − pre-deal price) ÷ (offer discounted at 4% a year to the expected close − pre-deal price). It assumes the stock falls back to its last close before the announcement if the deal breaks. Shown rounded to the nearest 5%, capped at ">95%". It ignores a possible higher bid, a changed fallback value and any pre-announcement run-up, so treat it as a rough guide. Roughly 9 in 10 announced U.S. cash deals close, but the ones that break can fall sharply.

Days left counts to the end of the company's stated closing window (e.g. "Q1 2027" means Mar 31, 2027). The annualized spread uses the same date.

Hurdles are inferred from the deal type and the target's industry (shareholder vote or tender offer, HSR antitrust, industry regulators, buyer financing), not read from the merger agreement. Go-shop deadlines are shown only when the announcement states one.

Sources: company announcements and headlines via the Catalysts scan, Yahoo Finance prices (delayed).